Bryce Mitchell vs. Kron Gracie Prediction: Betting Odds, Expert Picks & Analysis for UFC 310

David Hunting | December 2, 2024

On December 7, 2024, Bryce “Thug Nasty” Mitchell and Kron Gracie will clash in a highly anticipated featherweight bout on the main card of UFC 310 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. This fight features two elite grapplers known for their submission skills and a shared passion for Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (BJJ). The outcome of this matchup will likely hinge on who can impose their grappling dominance and adapt better to the stand-up exchanges.

Betting Odds

7 DEC, 2024 | 7:00 PM PST

Mitchell

(Favorite)


Prediction: -1000

VS

Gracie

(Underdog)


Prediction: +450

-700

Bovada

+475

-700

BetOnline

+500

-651

Pinnacle

+460

-675

DraftKings

+490

Mitchell is the clear favorite, reflecting his versatility and proven record in high-level MMA competition. Gracie, though a submission specialist, has struggled to adapt his game to modern MMA, especially against opponents who can neutralize his grappling.

Fighter Profiles and Analysis

Bryce Mitchell

Bryce Mitchell
Age: 30Leg Reach: 40″
Height: 5’9″Fighting Style: BJJ Grappler
Weight: 145 lbsStance: Southpaw
Reach: 70″Record: 16-2-0 (9 Submissions, 7 Decisions)

Notable Strengths
High-level grappling with a unique style and an aggressive top game. Mitchell’s striking, though not elite, has improved significantly, allowing him to set up takedowns effectively.

Weaknesses
Limited striking power and susceptibility to opponents with superior striking and takedown defense.

Kron Gracie

Kron Gracie
Age: 36Leg Reach: 39″
Height: 5’9″Fighting Style: BJJ Grappler
Weight: 145 lbsStance: Southpaw
Reach: 70″Record: 5-2-0 (5 Submissions, 0 KOs, 0 Decisions)

Notable Strengths
World-class Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu with an aggressive submission-hunting approach. His ability to secure back control and finish fights is unmatched.

Weaknesses
Rudimentary striking and poor striking defense have been his Achilles heel, along with difficulties adapting to the MMA meta.

Recent Fight History and Form


Bryce Mitchell
Kron Gracie
🟥 Loss
Opponent: Josh Emmett
Method: KO, Round 1 (1:57)
Last Fight🟥 Loss
Opponent: Charles Jourdain
Method: Decision, Round 3 (5:00)
🟩 Win
Opponent: Dan Ige
Method: Decision, Round 3 (5:00)
2nd Last Fight🟥 Loss
Opponent: Cub Swanson
Method: Decision, Round 3 (5:00)
🟥 Loss
Opponent: Ilia Topuria
Method: Submission, Round 2 (3:10)
3rd Last Fight🟩 Win
Opponent: Alex Caceres
Method: Submission, Round 1 (2:06)
🟩 Win
Opponent: Edson Barboza
Method: Decision, Round 3 (5:00)
4th Last Fight🟩 Win
Opponent: Tatsuya Kawajiri
Method: Submission, Round 2 (2:05)
🟩 Win
Opponent: Andre Fili
Method: Decision, Round 3 (5:00)
5th Last Fight🟩 Win
Opponent: Hideo Tokoro
Method: Submission, Round 1 (9:49)

Expected Strategy

Bryce Mitchell

Mitchell is expected to mix his striking with takedowns to keep Gracie guessing. On the ground, Mitchell’s focus will likely be on positional control and ground-and-pound rather than engaging in risky submission exchanges, where Gracie excels.

Kron Gracie

Gracie will aim to close the distance quickly, pull guard if necessary, and set up submissions from the bottom. Striking exchanges will be minimal, as Gracie will want to avoid extended periods on the feet.

Prediction and Picks

Prediction: Bryce Mitchell Wins by Decision

While Gracie’s submission skills are world-class, Mitchell’s MMA grappling and superior wrestling will likely give him the edge. Expect Mitchell to dictate the pace of the fight with takedowns, positional control, and ground-and-pound, while avoiding risky positions that could lead to submissions. On the feet, Mitchell’s striking improvements will provide just enough to outpoint Gracie in stand-up exchanges.

Recommended Picks

Mitchell to Win by Decision

Mitchell’s grappling-based control and Gracie’s durability make a decision victory the most likely outcome.

Fight Goes the Distance

Both fighters are grappling specialists, which could lead to prolonged ground exchanges rather than a quick finish.

Small Hedge on Gracie by Submission

Gracie’s best path to victory is via submission. A small bet on this outcome could yield value given the odds.

Mitchell to Win Straight

While the odds are steep, Mitchell’s overall skill set makes him the clear favorite to win the fight.

This matchup is a grappling fan’s dream, pitting two elite submission specialists against each other. However, Mitchell’s adaptability to modern MMA, superior wrestling, and improved striking should allow him to control the fight and earn a decision victory.

Reviewed by
Johnatan Parrish